Post Vaccination Regarding Herd Immunity, Establishing Population Immunity
Ending Covid
Regarding Measuring Rates of Decline in Covid-19 Cases in Order to Assess if Herd Immunity can be Determined
As the distribution of the Covid-19 vaccine proceeds across the country, attempts to document the rates of those vaccinated and Covid-19 positive individuals are being conducted. These numbers can be used to define what the ratios are, in order to assess when the mainstream population reaches a particular threshold, which might be referred to as herd immunity.
In previous discussion it was determined that one way to define herd immunity, is as a marking point of a level of a population immunity at which the virus is spreading declines and stops, even after all preventive measures are no longer in effect. These preventive measures being referred to as mask wearing and social distance policies. Once these preventive measures are removed within a region, the immunity level from infection should be below the herd immunity level.
When determining whether specific facilities such as workplaces and schools should be open, it is imperative to develop an accurate equation to assess if it would be feasible. In the particular example of disease-induced herd immunity levels, refer to the previous post pertaining to the equation for herd immunity. These are particular threshold points that must be determined in order to contain, a minimum, a maximum, and then a plateau (inflection points as an example). For example, if utilizing distance measures has not succeeded. Then past a certain point, it is feasible to proceed in the opposing direction, in order to initiate appropriate variables in an environment, to implement herd immunity. The effect of school closure and closing workplaces and businesses on establishing herd immunity is quite conflicting regarding large scale populations attempting to reach the threshold maximum.
Regarding previous variables redefined, include being able to determine if pre-exposure to the virus resulted in creating antibodies, which would be verified in corresponding positive Covid-19 test results. These positive Covid-19 test results from all individuals tested in an area, verify whether they have a natural immunity against the Covid virus.
The question arose whether it was possible for an additional variable to become relevant in this equation, that being of if a second wave of infection might start once restrictions were lifted. In a post-vaccinated era it is clear that the concern from re-infection of the same strain of a virus will not occur, such as the case of the annual influenza vaccine and influenza virus resistance. Therefore, it is feasible to state that the concern for reinfection will not occur with this particular strain of the C0vid-19 virus. The vaccinations that are being implemented, will in effect block the further spread of the Covid virus, preventing re-infection from occurring concurrently.
This is in addition to pre-existing conditions among the population, which have set forth measures for an exposed population to develop natural immunity against the virus with the development of antibodies.
Returning back to the variable of when the general public resumes normal movement within a given region, regarding reopening population restricted facilities. Once these institutions resume regular operations it is anticipated that the exposure rate to those who have been previously exposed to Covid-19 will be determined, towards a positive attribute reducing the overall cases of those that have not been exposed, along with the correlation of implementing the vaccine model. The vaccine model equation would take into consideration all variable factors given within a population that would equate to the minimum and maximum vaccination requirement ratios a society would have to meet, in order to have the greatest effect in a pandemic.
