Post Vaccination/ Developing The Vaccine Model Equation
Ending Covid
Understanding Herd Immunity by Developing a Vaccine Model Equation
The vaccine model equation would take into consideration all variable factors given within a population that would equate to the minimum and maximum vaccination requirement ratios a society would have to meet in order to have the greatest effect in a pandemic.
Starting with determining what the percentage rates in a given region or grid marking. For a particular given area there can be a projected estimate to estimate what percent of the population will benefit the most from vaccination. First, determine the amount of the population that has already been exposed to the Covid-19 virus, including those who have tested positive from previously conducted Covid-19 tests. These individuals will have a higher chance of having developed antibodies to protect them from infection. Regarding defining ratios of what extent a population would have to have, positive exposed individuals in order to initiate herd immunity, must take into consideration several factors.
For example, if in a specific area 67% to 70% percentage of the population was exposed to the Covid-19 virus, tested positive, and recovered or remained asymptomatic to the virus post exposure. Then in that given population it would be stated that at this particular (67.0%) point
the equation could be applied.
This would be referred to as the maximum exposure threshold.
When this threshold point is reached, which can be equated by determining how many individuals are in a population, and what the probability is for them to come across one another, and at what frequency. Only one case interaction is required, in order for the exposure to occur from an individual who has been exposed to the virus in any environment.
For example, in a given case of an area with 100 individuals then person A would have to proceed to point (y) at a given time to interact with person B. Given how many required points an individual would have to arrive to points (x, y, z) at a frequency of (x) times a week (z) times a month, in order to equate the probability of interactions with person B. At which point that all 100 hundred individuals reach the 100% probability of chance encounters with the virus in a restricted environment. Then, person A would comes across 5 individuals at point y, then those 5 individuals move to points (x, y, z) and come across other individuals.
The rate of exposure to the virus would move at an exponential rate which is clearly evident in the case of Covid-19.
